Mathematics and real life
Oct. 17th, 2003 09:22 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nadrielI've always been interested in mathematics, particularly as it relates to things in the real world.
Something that I've always wondered about is: Would it be possible to use maths to predict the actions of groups of people, or even individuals (in a general fashion).
Say for example, you knew that person X was of primary personality type R, you could predict within certain delimiters how they'd react in a given situation. The more personality variables that were known, the more accurate a prediction could be.
And of course, it would be helped by working closely with psychologists, particularly to establish personality variables and ranges of action.
Oh well, I'll add that to the list of possible research topics if I ever become wealthy enough to be able to fund it.
Something that I've always wondered about is: Would it be possible to use maths to predict the actions of groups of people, or even individuals (in a general fashion).
Say for example, you knew that person X was of primary personality type R, you could predict within certain delimiters how they'd react in a given situation. The more personality variables that were known, the more accurate a prediction could be.
And of course, it would be helped by working closely with psychologists, particularly to establish personality variables and ranges of action.
Oh well, I'll add that to the list of possible research topics if I ever become wealthy enough to be able to fund it.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 01:18 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 01:35 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 02:22 am (UTC)-Seth-Ra the Everliving.
(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 02:25 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 05:43 am (UTC)To phrase it another way ... huge numbers of people do tend to behave certain statistically-predicatble patterns of behaviour - an example, there are 60m people in Great Britain, most of whom wear clothes. However, you always get exceptions - example, those occasional streakers at big sports events.
Essentially, the problem with forecasting human behaviour is that of demand characteristics; when you do the research upon which to base your maths, you have to do it in such a way that the research itself doesn't prompt a particular kind of behaviour - you want people acting as naturally as possible, so as to correspond to how they actually do behave. And finding ways to control for this experimental bias are one of the biggest nightmares in social science. It's why psychologists don't seem to bother much with error bars - you'd rarely be able to wrestle the b***ers down *as far* as 10%, let alone to the point where you actually have a reliable set of conclusions.
Essentially, no model is ever better then the data that went in, and people can be a bloody pain when they put their minds to it.
(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 05:45 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 05:51 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 12:25 pm (UTC)-Seth-Ra the Everliving.
(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 05:55 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-17 07:04 pm (UTC)Its hard to explain. I imagine it will be hard to code. I tried, but I dont have the patience, I never did. But I intend to. Someday. :wistful look:
(no subject)
Date: 2003-10-19 11:44 am (UTC)